Is the recession over?

The recession began in December 2007. Did it end sometime this spring?


It's a provocative question that's tough to answer. It's tempting to say the recession is over when that seems to be what the stock market is telling us.

But Wall Street hardly has a perfect track record: There were numerous bear market rallies during the Great Depression, for example.

Stocks also enjoyed a nice run last spring after Bear Stearns almost imploded, even though the collapses of Fannie Mae (FNM, Fortune 500), Freddie Mac (FRE, Fortune 500), Lehman Brothers and AIG (AIG, Fortune 500) were still yet to come.