Saturday, July 4, 2009

Danger: Stock Market Crash - Recession - Depression Ahead

In the summer of 2007 concerns were rising regarding mortgages and other toxic paper. The concerns were causing drops in the Dow and NASDAQ. Ironically, George Bush called the American economy “the envy of the world,” noting that its fundamentals were “strong… Job creation is strong. Real after-tax wages are on the rise. Inflation is low.”
Now compare this to Herbert Hoover in 1928 on the eve of the Depresson, who stated “We in America today are nearer to the final triumph over poverty than ever before in the history of any land. The poorhouse is vanishing from among us.

Comparing these two statements makes one think or maybe better said… Worry…
Where are we really in this cycle. Are we in a Recession? Have we entered a Depression? Everyone seems to have an opinion. However only in retrospect will we really know. We have not had any waterfall declines such as 1987 or even 1929. It seems things are just dragging down or grinding us down. The anxiety is not just in the stock market but seems to be encompassing our entire lives. It seems to many the world has changed.

Who would have really believed interest rates would be virtually zero. Who would have believed that Citi (C) would be $2.51. Surely not the Abu Dhabi investment authority or Bin Alaweed. It seems more money was lost trying to catch the bottom. Seems everyone wants to call a bottom. Not to be negative but all one has to do is look at Japan. Their economy, stock market and real estate market has been in the dumpster close to 20 years. Why can that not happen in the Western economies?

I have never met anyone who has been long time successful predicting anything... not alone the stock market. One needs not to have an opinion and simply follow the market where it wants to go in order to be successful.

There is more to this though. I am not just thinking from a trading perspective but rather a main street USA perspective. The sale of antidepressants and anti-anxiety drugs are rising. People are losing their homes. Businesses are firing employees. Some companies that have existed for years, actually longer than memory are shutting their doors. Gun sales are increasing. I even read an article that there were shortages of bullets in some locals. People are taking cash out of the bank in preparation for a long-haul bad time. They have no confidence in the banks… or for that fact, much of anything. More worrisome is the fact if someone wants Gold Eagle Coins they cannot obtain them from the US mint.

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